EvaluatePharma Ltd

Pharmaceutical Industry Bracing for Record Patent Expiries, EvaluatePharma Data Reveals

    London (ots/PRNewswire) - Thirteen US blockbusters will lose patent protection over the next two years, data from EvaluatePharma show, highlighting the challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry in the coming years. With the reporting season in full swing it is no wonder that several big pharmaceutical company chief executives have warned of tough times ahead.

      - Drugs worth $15.3bn face generic competition this year
      - "At risk" sales to more than double to $33.2bn by 2012, biggest
         annual total on record
      - $133bn of branded drugs face patent expiry in next six years in
         the US alone
      - Pfizer to bear brunt of patent cliff with $11bn Lipitor expiry
         later this year

    The sector is facing an unprecedented period of patent expiries when mega-blockbusters, including Lipitor, Plavix and Zyprexa, will all be exposed to cheap, generic drugs. While this is good news in terms of lowering healthcare bills, companies like Pfizer and Eli Lilly are facing the loss of hugely profitable franchises.

    Top products going off-patent in 2011 and 2012  

@@start.t1@@                                                                            USA annual sales ($m)
      Year Rank Product    Company         2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015 2016
      2011  1    Lipitor    Pfizer         5,329 4,528    492    146      73      45      42
                2    Zyprexa    Eli Lilly    2,496 1,949    339    218    188    172    157
                3    Levaquin  Johnson &    1,312    734    155      62      43      30      17
                                      Johnson
                4    Concerta  Johnson &        929    587    306    221    189    150    111
                                      Johnson
                5    Protonix  Pfizer            690    279    172      96      64      41      17
      2012  1    Plavix      Bristol
                                      -Myers         6,154 6,315 3,014    382    113      61      28
                                      Squibb
                2    Seroquel  AstraZeneca 3,747 3,771 1,669    985    861    792    732
                3    Singulair Merck & Co  3,224 3,356 2,178    364    125      53      21
                4    Actos        Takeda         3,351 3,275 1,360    582    511    462    413
                5    Enbrel      Amgen          3,304 3,258 3,218 3,157 3,097 3,024 2,967
                6    Lexapro    Forest         2,264 2,122    188      66      50      43      39
                                      Laboratories
                7    Diovan      Novartis      2,520 2,093 1,540    394    333    279    246
                8    Viagra      Pfizer            992 1,007    328      75      59      54      46
                9    Provigil  Cephalon      1,027    916    403      87      38      28      17
                10  Geodon      Pfizer            864    907    539    120      35      28      22@@end@@

    By 2016, medicines that generate sales of $133bn for their manufacturers in the US alone will be exposed to generics. And while this year looks bad, next year is a true annus horribilis: drugs worth $33.2bn this year will lose patent protection in 2012, more than double this year's figure.

    Big pharma patent expiry risk over next 3 years (data based on FY 2010 estimates)

                                  WW      Patent  Patent expiry        %
                                Pharma  expired    within 3      portfolio
                                 Sales    sales    years ($bn)    at risk
                                in 2010  ($bn)                         within 3
                                 ($bn)                                         years
      Pfizer                 53.6      13.8          22.7              68%
      Eli Lilly            20.8        3.1          10.6              66%
      Bristol-Myers
      Squibb                 15.6        0.9            8.2              58%
      Johnson &
      Johnson                24.3        6.5            6.3              52%
      AstraZeneca         31.7        7.7            8.3              50%
      Amgen                  14.6        0.0            7.4              50%
      Merck & Co          41.1      10.1            7.4              43%
      Sanofi-Aventis    39.9      11.1            4.8              40%
      Novartis              45.0        6.5          11.4              40%
      GlaxoSmithKline  39.6      10.8            2.4              33%
      Abbott
      Laboratories        19.4        3.8            1.0              25%
      Roche                  36.2        4.5            2.4              19%

    Pfizer is bearing the brunt of these expiries with Lipitor, the cholesterol-lowering agent which generated $11bn last year. Generics will enter the US market later this year, ultimately robbing Pfizer of the world's biggest drug maker title in 2012, with Novartis the heir-apparent.

    Although Eli Lilly is facing a smaller patent cliff in dollar terms, the US pharma giant is feeling similar pain. Like Pfizer, two-thirds of the company's drug sales are likely to meet generic competitors in the next three years, presenting a huge challenge which will be tough to overcome.

    For more information and in-depth analysis of this data, please see:

    Patent storm gathering strength: http://bit.ly/f3JKPS

    Pfizer patent cliff dwarfs peers as loss of Lipitor looms: http://bit.ly/fWjvUA

    Notes to editors  

    About EvaluatePharma:  

    The research company EvaluatePharma Ltd was the first to supply reliable consensus forecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwide financial and forecast models with consensus product sales forecasts to 2016, data on R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A activity. Launched in 2007, EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha offers a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation service quantifying market events and the impact on product, portfolio and company valuation including the daily online news service EP Vantage(R).

    EvaluatePharma(R), EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha, and EP Vantage(R) are services of EvaluatePharma Ltd, headquartered in London, England. In North America, EvaluatePharma Ltd is represented by EvaluatePharma USA, Inc.

http://www.evaluatepharma.com

      Contact:
      Christian Glennie
      Senior Editorial Analyst, EP Vantage
      T: +44(0)20-7539-1806
      E: christiang@evaluatepharma.com
      Andrew Beaven
      Marketing Director, EvaluatePharma Ltd
      T: +44(0)20-7539-1818
      E: andrewb@evaluatepharma.com
      EvaluatePharma Ltd
      11-29 Fashion Street
      London
      E1 6PX
      United Kingdom

ots Originaltext: EvaluatePharma Ltd
Im Internet recherchierbar: http://www.presseportal.ch

Contact:
CONTACT:  Christian Glennie, Senior Editorial Analyst, EP Vantage,
T:+44(0)20-7539-1806, E: christiang@evaluatepharma.com; Andrew
Beaven,Marketing Director, EvaluatePharma Ltd, T: +44(0)20-7539-1818,
E:andrewb@evaluatepharma.com



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